When the PRV eradication program goals were adopted in the spring of 1989, the program was just getting started and we had little experience with the program procedures. Those goals were based on a couple of major assumptions:

1. States with sparse hog populations and little or no disease would move rapidly to the final program stages;

2. States with dense hog populations and a relatively high prevalence of the disease would move slowly, first, because of the difficulty of finding all of the infected herds and second, because it would be difficult to clean up some infected herds, especially large, confined herds.

Two major developments during the ensuing five years have had substantial impact on those assumptions. One was the development of area testing in dense hog states, often at owner’s expense, which accelerated greatly the identification of infected herds in those states. The second was the development of the gene-deleted vaccines and the tests that accompanied them, which accelerated herd cleanup greatly. This was part of the answer to the large herd problem, which turned out not to be as great a problem as was expected.

Now we find, as a result of these developments, that states with dense hog populations are moving much more rapidly toward eradication than was expected. At the same time, states with sparse hog populations are not moving to the final stages as quickly as expected, for a variety of reasons, chief of which are a desire to wait for their neighbors, usually for trade reasons.

So it’s time to take a new look at program goals. Here’s what I suggest as goals:

1994 - All states Stage II or higher

1995 - 23 states Stage IV or higher

1996 - 32 states Stage IV or higher, 10 states and major portions of 5 split status states in Stage III.

1997 - 39 states in Stage IV or higher, all states Stage III or higher

1998 - 42 states Stage IV or higher

1999 - 49 states Stage IV or higher

2000 - Iowa to Stage IV, all 50 states free of the disease

To meet these goals, it will be necessary for individual states to meet goals. Here are the individual state goals that will make these national goals possible.

Four states with 15 percent of the herds in the nation remain in Stage I and should advance in 1994. They are Florida, which is getting started on surveillance, needs regulations for Stage II, and should progress to Stage III by 1996. New Jersey, with three known cases, should be in Stage III by 1995. Rhode Island has no state animal disease staff only one known case in 90 herds, and should be Stage IV by 1996. Iowa is planning a Stage II application this year.

Assumes that New Hampshire, returned to Stage III because of one case, will advance to Stage IV again. The following states now have four or fewer PRV infected herds: Alabama - 0, Arkansas - 1, California - 4, Colorado - 1, Delaware - 0, Hawaii - 1, Louisiana - 1, Maryland - 0, Massachusetts - 1, Oklahoma - 2, South Carolina - 0, Tennessee - 2, Vermont - 0, Washington - 0, West Virginia - 0, Wisconsin - 0. Expect Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Vermont and West Virginia to move to Stage IV.

Expect Hawaii, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Massachusetts to advance.

Only Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa will remain in Stage II, along with small parts of Indiana, Minnesota, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nebraska.

Expect Ohio, Texas, Kentucky, Georgia, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Kansas to advance.

Expect Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa to advance to Stage III joining Missouri, Illinois, and South Dakota. North Carolina, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan should advance to Stage III-IV.

 

Missouri, Illinois, South Dakota to Stage IV, 5 states in split-status states in III/IV and Florida, Pennsylvania, and Iowa in Stage III.

Expect Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa to Stage IV, North Carolina, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan to Stage IV/V with Iowa remaining in Stage III